World Focus
Modi in Central Asia: Will Modi's July Forays bring about a Change?
Let us assume that the 'emperor of India', Narendra Modi undertook his maiden voyage to Central Asian capitals and Ufa in his special plane Air India One. His intention was to clear the doubt in public perception that he neglected India's extended neighborhood. Modi ventured into a land where there is no clear 'India policy' even after a quarter century of its independence. Yet Modi wished to meet and confabulate with the Presidents of these countries within the span of just a week; the purpose of his visit, Indian interests and how both sides could harness their potential for mutual benefit. Before and after embarking on his journey, Modi sought advice from Indian Ambassadors in concerned countries in the presence of Indian Foreign Secretary and National Security Advisor, who accompanied him. As Air India One soared into the sky on 6 July 2015 to cross the Himalayas and the Hindukush to reach the Pamir and beyond to Tashkent, Indian Prime Minister's eight day six nation official visits got under way. As a democratically elected popular leader of the world's largest democracy, Modi headed to an uncommon land, where dictatorial presidents reign for years, in some countries ever since independence dawned on them. His visit agenda was set to pursue India's interests on bilateral and multilateral platforms-bilateral with individual countries and multilateral within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. Common interests and collective endeavor on issues of regional and national interests were what brought together the leaders of Russia, China, India, Central Asian countries sans Turkmenistan, Pakistan and many other members or observers - to deliberate on nagging problems such as terrorism, narcotic and human trafficking, arms trade, Afghanistan, energy cooperation, bilateral cultural interface and many give and take matters of mutual importance.
While these countries are unknown to Modi, the ambassadors are supposed to be country experts; thus making the dialogue between him and the Ambassadors interesting.
What is Uzbekistan? Asked the Prime Minister,
The Ambassador replied: Uzbekistan is a country with many special features. It is from where Babur came to India via Samarkand and Kabul after crossing the Indus River. It is a big country straddling across valleys in the east, deserts in the south, a dying Aral Sea in the northwest and all through not so high mountains, river cascades run down the slopes and sometimes vanish in the desert far short of a water body. It is a country of 30 million people- half of Central Asia's total population. It is a doubly land locked country, implying that it borders with five other land locked countries. The ancient Grand Silk Road runs through the heart of capital, Tashkent via Samarkand and Bukhara. It is from the Uzbek town of Termez that Soviet forces marched into Afghanistan in December 1979.
Modi: I see Uzbekistan has age-old ties with us. India's geopolitical and security interests in Afghanistan are closely interwoven with Uzbekistan.
Ambassador: Yes, under the Kushans we were one country. The Moghuls once again united the entire region as a single geo-cultural and political space. We have still a Turkmen Gate in Delhi. The Qutab Minar in Delhi and the Kalyan Minarate in Bukhara are identical in structure. But in the welter of times, we are separated by Afghanistan and Pakistan and set apart by Himalayan barriers. As a result Uzbekistan looks to China and the West rather than at India for help. But opportunities are aplenty to foster bilateral cooperation. The country has hydrocarbon, Uranium, gold and other resources
Modi: So we will pursue cultural diplomacy laden with security innuendoes and not allow our common cultural space to be trampled by other countries. Thus we end up signing a series of agreements that include:
· Agreement on Intergovernmental Programme of Cultural Cooperation for 2015-2D 17.
· Intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the field of tourism
· Protocol on Cooperation between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Uzbekistan, and Ministry of External Affairs, India was inked.
The pompous visit entailed in economic cooperation, when Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Prime Minister, Shavkat Mirziyoev ostentatiously reaffirmed Indo-Uzbek mutuality. In fact, political pronouncements are shenanigans on the sands of time, and their enduring mutuality will be proved when both sides committedly work for achieving their common objectives.
On 7 July, no sooner did Modi board flight for Astana- a new city built assiduously by the Sultan of Kazakhstan, Nulsultan Nazarbayev- Modi asked the Indian Ambassador: what is this country about, what are Indian interests in that country and how do we go about? The Ambassador replied:
Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in the world. It is very rich in hydrocarbon resources. Kazakhstan alternates with Australian as the largest Uranium producer in the world. Chinese investment in Kazakhstan exceeds $ 23.5 billion in 2015. In all other Central Asian countries put together the Chinese investment is just $ 10 billion. It is industrially developed and has an able leader - the only Soviet era Politbureau member ruling in Central Asia. It is a dependable country for ensuing India's energy security and India can hope to engage Kazakhstan in various ways. It is the country that buys from India small nuclear reactors and desires that its military officer cadres be trained by India.
Modi: So we will settle here with President Nazarbayev for security, military and economic cooperation and sign bilateral agreements for further promotion of trade and commerce. We will engage this country in the North South transportation corridor to trade with us and supply energy. In the conclusion Modi told his accompaniment about five agreements signed, which included:
· A Uranium supply deal by which Kazakhstan has agreed to supply 5000 tons of Uranium during 2015-2019,
· Civil nuclear cooperation
· Hydrocarbon agreement to engage India in Kazakh gas fields.
· Human resource development and capacity building
· Cultural Exchanges
Come 8 July, 2015 Modi is off to Ufa in the Russian Federation, which was the venue of two consecutive meetings - 7th BRICS summit on 8-9 July followed by 15th SCO summit on 9-10 July. Modi did not ask the Indian Ambassador in Russia to brief him either on the summit agenda or what Russia means to India. He is hugely aware of the importance of Russia, the significance of BRICS and SCO from the briefings of accompanying Foreign Secretary and National Security Advisor. These summits were repetition of global camaraderie with high regional connotation. Modi is again scheduled to visit Russia at the end of 2015 for the annual apex level Indo-Russian meet that has been regularly happening since October 2000, when both countries became strategic partners for the first time. However, the outcomes of the Ufa summits were tangibly two for India: 1. Years of wait are over and decision is taken to admit India as a full member of the SCO in its next annual meet and 2. Ufa declaration with Pakistani Premier to better Indo-Pakistan ties. However, good intentions went awfully awry soon after Nawaz Sharif's return home when a terrorist attack wrecked Gurdaspur in Punjab and bilateral negotiations were put off. The fact that Pakistan is going to be also admitted as SCO member would permanently changed the present power paradigm of this otherwise peaceable organization. There will be four nuclear powers in this regional grouping - Russia, China, India and Pakistan - and amidst them the small non-nuclear Central Asian countries would always be apprehensive about getting sandwiched between nuclear and non-nuclear member. In a nutshell, there would be intense political jockeying within the SCO. Future will tell the shape of things to come".
Following a three day hectic schedule, Modi headed southward to Ashgabat, capital of Turkmenistan late on 10th July night. The following day was perhaps the inimitable itinerary that Indian Prime Minister followed. He asked all his advisors, Ambassador included, for a brief on this country. The sum up was:
Ambassador, NSA and the Foreign Secretary: Turkmenistan in Central Asia is one of the five Caspian littoral states. It has the sixth largest gas reserves in the world and enormous promises to have friendly ties with India. It supplies gas gratis to its population. However, for nearly two decades, the TAPI pipeline project is hanging on uncertainties. India has to turn challenges into opportunities in this country as much for its own benefits as for regional harmony. Turkmenistan was one of those few countries that had hobnobbed with the Taliban in Afghanistan and allowed Taliban leaders resort facilities on the Caspian coast. Located alongside the North-South transport corridor, it is a crucial country of transit to facilitate faster communication. The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan rail line linked to Iran's in the south and to Russia's in the north is a promising communication link to shorten surface communication duration from Chabahar in Iran, where India is building a port northward to Russia and beyond to Europe. It could be the ideal transit hub for India.
The rich Turkmen heritage takes us back to the days of yore when in IX-XI centuries, the Seljuk rulers reigned over the region. The Seljuk Empire of Turkmenistan extended to areas as far from Chinese Xinjiang as to Persia and Turkey. Fearful of invaders on horse back from Turkmenistan, the Chinese built the Great Wall of China to safeguard them from frequent attacks. Its old civilization is at Nisa, an important township along the ancient Silk Road. The Turkmen Gate in Delhi is symbolic and reminiscent of their presence in India. Its former President Saparmurat Niyazov has transformed Ashgabat into a glistening marble city with water fountains gushing up all around. His successor Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has been following the footprints of his predecessor in supporting the foreign policy of positive neutrality, apparently inspired by India's non-alignment. Turkmenistan is the only Central Asian country, which is not a member of the SCO. We have many common interests and common concerns on issues of terrorism and extremism.
Modi: Cultural links apart, we will court this important country for two primary reasons: energy and communication. While TAPI is the key pillar of our energy cooperation, transit and transportation are gateways of our communication linkages with Central Asia and Russia. Thus, a series of seven agreements inked that included:
· Agreement on the $ 10 billion TAPI project
· Agreement on cooperation to combat terrorism and extremism
· Agreement on fight against organized crime and narcotic trafficking
· Agreement on cooperation in defence, including cadre training and information sharing
· MoU on development of tourism
· MoU on connectivity via North South Transport Corridor and transit via Turkmenistan
· Agreement on Cultural cooperation
Modi's visit and Petroleum Ministrer Dharmendra Pradhan's persistent efforts to fructify TAPI have added a fillip to this so far lagging project. It has suddenly picked up speed, and hopefully in coming years, the flicker of hopes generated by fruitful exchanges would benefit both sides. Two major developments have taken place in recent months: 1. The participating countries have become stakeholders in the project and Turkmenistan has taken the lead with 51 percent stake by itself and the rest will be divided among Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. 2. The notable aspect of the decision is to include Japan in the project for financial assistance and there will be no shortage of funds to implement TAPI. Thus Modi has generated crimson hopes of TAPI soon getting materialized and it is a tangible gain of the visit.
The next stop of business was Kyrgyzstan. Modi landed in Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek shortly before midnight on 11 July. Kyrgyzstan is a small mountainous and the most rebellious country in the Tianshan range of mountains on the western borders of Chinese Xinjiang. On the way Modi asked the Indian Ambassador to tell about Bishkek, the importance of the country and India's interests there.
The Ambassador: Kyrgyzstan is a formidable country. In post-Soviet years it has gone through two revolutions and four regime changes. It is the only country that has hosted two military bases of big powers - Manas for the US and Kant for Russia. It is the geopolitical vertex where China is a natural player alongside Russia. By investing more than $33 billion into Central Asia in general and $ 3.61 billion into Kyrgyzstan in particular in the past decade, China has nudged out Russia from Central Asia. The country is scenic in beauty and famous for tourism. It has the largest lake, Issyk kul famous for tourism. But it is a poor country with no industrial development in sight. People are rustic and they do cattle breeding and agriculture. There are plenty of fresh water cascades to generate hydroelectric power - an issue on which the country has nagging disputes with neighboring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The country is geopolitically salubrious for big power competition that has kept it at the boiling point through most of its independent existence. With a population of just 6 million, Kyrgyzstan is the only country in Central Asia that has experimented with both presidential and parliamentary form of democracy in last two decades and has passed successfully two bloody revolts.
Modi: So, defence, democracy, commerce and culture matter more than anything else; so we sign four related documents on these issues, which include:
· Agreement on Defence Cooperation signed to deepen synergy on security, military education and training with provisions for conducting joint military exercises.
· MoU on Cooperation in the field of Elections to deepen cooperation in matters of legislation on elections and referendums.
· MoU between the Ministry of Economy of Kyrgyz Republic and Bureau of Indian Standards on cooperation in the sphere of Standards to strengthen technical cooperation in standardization and sharing of expertise on mutual trade.
· Agreement on Cultural Cooperation to deepen cultural cooperation in such areas as preservation of cultural heritage, theatre, youth festivals and organization of folk arts, exchange of archival materials and translation of literature.
When Modi bode adieu to Bishkek on 12 July and headed westward to Dushanbe on final leg of his Central Asia sojourn, he asked the Ambassador for a brief about Tajikistan.
Ambassador: Tajikistan is geographically the nearest country to India. When Afghanistan and Pakistan were not there, it was India's direct neighbor. We are still divided by a 13 kilometer stretch of Wakkhan corridor from Gilgit and Mintaka. Tajikistan is mountainous, industrially underdeveloped an considered to be the poorest country in Central Asia But it has Aluminum, Uranium and enormous hydro resources from where it could generate electricity t export to neighbors through grids across mountain for which it has been trying to build a high dam at Rogun. This has generated considerable bickering between Tajikistan, which wishes to build the Rogun and Uzbekistan, which fiercely opposes it.
Tajikistan was plunged into a bloody civil war in the aftermath of Soviet collapse that lasted between 1992 and 1997 until it forged an alliance of old communists, neo-democratic and Islamist forces. This alliance headed by Imomali Rakhmonov has been holding onto power ever since, but slowly becoming shaky due to widespread poverty, ruthless dictatorship and one man's hold on power that does not allow democracy to function. The country lives with remittances from Russia arid other CIS countries where Tajiks have been working menial jobs due to lack of jobs at home. Families are thus shattered husbandmen are abroad and ladies are struggling ' countryside to make both ends meet.
Close to Afghanistan and sharing with it long stretch of border divided by river Amu Darya, the country has been in ferment with spillover Afghan effects, harboring extremists and providing them a safe haven of transit. Therefore, regional stability cannot be conceived sans Tajikistan. It is a country in close proximity to the Af-Pak complex very much in our neighborhood. India used the Aini military facilities in past to help Northern Alliance fight Taliban in Afghanistan. Indian doctors treated wounded Alliance soldiers at Aini. But we have failed to la" our feet firmly there because of unclear policies and prolong dillydally.
Modi: For the time being, India signed two agreements with Tajikistan on 13 July 2015. Nothing on security and nothing on culture because that makes bilateral ties messy in the backdrop of what has been happening in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
1. Programme of Cooperation between the Ministries of Culture of India and Tajikistan for the year 2016-2018;
2. Exchange of Note Verbale on setting up computer labs in 37 schools across Tajikistan.
Modi's eight-day, six nation voyage and meetings with leaders of SCO and BRICS came to an end on 13 July, 2015. It was the first such marathon visits an Indian Prime Minister undertook to all Central Asian countries in one go to demonstrate India's proactive resolve to engage our extended neighbors. "Neighbors First" foreign policy of the NDA has been supplemented by "Extended Neighbors Second". Commerce and communication, security and development, energy and Uranium, cultural exchange and unshakable faith in each other overwhelmed the talks everywhere. Judging from the ostensible warmth, one could discern the Prime Minister's desire to strengthen regional ties by developing an individual chemistry with leaders of each Central Asian country plus Russia, whose influence on the region reigns supreme, whose language is still spoken and taught, whose shadow on the geopolitics of Central Asia is still long and unending.
Advisors emphatically informed Modi on pervasive Chinese influence. China has invested time, energy and money in Central Asia as none others. During 2005-2015, its investment in Kazakhstan is $23.55 billion, Kyrgyzstan $3.61 billion, Tajikistan $1.24 billion, Turkmenistan $3.88 billion and in Uzbekistan $1.51 billion.
Modi decided to nudge off this massive investment impact. India must make every effort to turn challenges to opportunities to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries. The voyage ended with bonhomie aired on the website by PMO at centralasiaebook.narendramodi.in that depicts a pictorial array of events and reminiscences, handshakes and hugs, warmth and felicitations. All these are not new with Central Asia. The visit was more a continuum than change with certain nuances of emphasis shifting from lackadaisical handling of issues by MEA bureaucracy to proactive business. In positive parlance, the visit has envisioned India's priorities in the extended neighborhood and sent out a message clear and loud that it is not South Asia alone where Modi is focused, it is the volatile extended neighborhood that too matters for India's geopolitical interests. The negative side of India Central Asia bilateral ties hinges on the attitudinal plateau of Central Asian leaders to talk of glorious past with India, but indeed prefer China, Europe and the West for business. In this attitudinal sway, even Russia does not matter much; let alon
